Lessons for Iranians in the Libyan Revolution

Iranian revolutionaries have tried and failed in the past two years to make significant progress in their ambition to overturn the regime in Iran. For those revolutionaries, and anyone supporting them, there is a lesson to be learned from events in Libya, as the Libyan and Iranian regime share many features in common.

Both countries have a weak Army, intentionally replaced by paramilitary forces, whose loyalty was cultivated over decades of dictatorship. The Iranian Basij and revolutionary Guard has its counterpart in Libya in the form of citizen militias and Gaddafi security brigades.

Libya, just like Iran, limits foreign media, and so the events on the ground don’t make it to the average Libyan homes. While Aljazeera is broadcasting in libya, they are jammed in the capital and have no reporters on the ground, except now in liberated eastern parts of Libya.

In Iran, the persian language BBC is broadcasting in Iran but has few reporters on the ground. and those reporters are banned from reporting on any demonstrations, or be on location in hot spots. The BBC is also being jammed at the peak of street unrest. Moreover, the BBC doesn't have the budget of Aljazeera, nor are they willing to defy government restrictions and risk arrest of their reporters.

The Libyan leader and his hardcore supporters appear immune to political or street pressure and are creating a situation on the ground that leaves very little way out of the crisis short of the forceful removal of Gaddafi. Gaddafi had no problem using the air-force, artillery, and mercenaries to quell the libyan revolt; There is footage in the media showing the aftermath of mass execution of security and military personal who refused to follow orders to shoot at the protestors. They are gearing up in Libya for a military battle for control of the capital and Gaddafi bunker compound within Tripoli, the same compound bombed by the USA during the Reagan years.

The Libyans are going to succeed at the end of the day but we will likely see thousands more killed and injured before they get to Gaddafi’s. The United States should, and likely will, impose a “no fly zone” in Libya to prevent the use of Libyan air-force to bomb the demonstrators. If we don’t we lose a chance to show support to the people of Libya in their hour of need, and in the process risk damaging our future relation with that nation of Libya and its future representative government.

In case of Iran, the regime has made it clear that they think that the Shah of Iran lost in 1979 because he wasn’t ruthless enough and stopped short of using “sufficient violence” to quell the Iranian revolution then. This guiding principle for the government strategy in Iran has meant that the violence against opposition protests is organized and unrelenting, designed to shock and ow the demonstrators. Just like in Libya, It is hard to imagine how 100% peaceful protest alone will dislodge this government. There will likely be an element of violence to combat the hardcore government forces that will fight till the end to preserve the regime, this will have to come from defecting military units towards the end of the revolt.

The Iranians have failed in the past two years in their revolution, mostly because of the government success in keeping them isolated from the world and the general population with total news blackout. They have experienced total internet shut down and cellular phone network restrictions which made it impossible for demonstrators to get their footage to the BBC, and when they did, it came a day or two after the events casing them to lose momentum every time they pushed to the streets. To complicate maters the BBC persian TV had limited coverage and broadcast ability due to government jamming in Iran. In short, the world knew what goes on in Iran in the days of demonstration but most Iranians at home didn't.

The Iranians don’t need military support or billions of dollars to be spend on destabilizing the government in Iran. Their needs are more practical and simple, they include:

-Free and uninterrupted satellite internet access to send out their footage of demonstrations.

-Professional cameras with or without reporters filming in the streets of Tehran and overcoming the government restrictions.

-Blanket 24/7 coverage by the BBC persian TV when the demonstration erupt again and be able to broadcast current events so that more Iranians can be moved into joining the revolution. The United States should consider financing the BBC for this coverage as the BBC has no budget for such extended coverage; The BBC had major budget cuts this year. I suspect that most Iranians would appreciate such moral and media support from the US and the west, and would not consider it interference in their internal affairs. Incidentally, voice of America broadcast, financed by the USA, is not as respected as the BBC as a credible source of news in Iran.

-The BBC and western countries should use all available technical option to limit the Iranian government future jamming of the BBC broadcast.

The Iranians have no hope of success minus all these elements and every time they go out to demonstrate they risk dying or being arrested without the benefit of media documenting their scarifies and conveying their cry for help to their own people. There is safety in numbers and media coverage, and so I hope they get both this year and 2011 will be the year of freedom for Iran too.

The point of no return in Iran

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_yBgd88f50

For the past 7 months the Iranian regime seemed to think that by exercising extreme violence on the street they can avert a new revolution in Iran. They base this strategy on the false belief that the fall of the shah's regime in 1979 was a result of faint heartedness on his part when it came to the crackdown on demonstrators. The events on the ground today are proving them wrong as their heavy handed strategy has left the demonstrators with no choice but to fight back and defend themselves by use of force.

The demonstrators in Tehran today (Dec 27) responded to the sever beatings by the security forces by organizing and attacking those forces. They managed to overwhelm the security forces in some areas, a site that is likely to repeat itself in the days to come.

Just like in the 1979 revolution, the next stages are sure to come, public strikes and the defection of security officers to join the masses. History is more likely to repeat itself than not.

If I were an Iranian official I'd be packing my bags and sending some $ to switzerland.

Khamenei's mistake could end his Regime

Khamenei did not need to antagonize all the grand Ayatollahs in Iran and Iraq, for no reason what so ever, but yet he did.

Khamenei issued a decree, on Sat the 19th of september, "ordering" all Iranians to stop fasting and celebrate the Eid on Sunday, rather than Monday, contrary to the decrees of all the other Ayatollahs.

In Shiite Islam individuals are required to select a senior clergyman, an Ayatollah, to be their spiritual guide in religious matters, such as when to start and end the fasting month of Ramadan. Ayatollah Khamenei, like the other Ayatollahs, has his own religious followers, inside and outside the country. He is also the only Ayatollah who is the head of state for all Iranians. This political title does not change the fact that most Iranians, regardless of their political allegiance, look to Ayatollahs other than Khamenei for spiritual guidance when it comes to religious matters.

As a religious leader Khamenei is expected to exercise his purgative in issuing edicts for his own religious followers on issues such as what day to start and end of the fasting month of Ramadan. Such religious edicts are expected to be directed at his religious followers and not be forced on others.

The aforementioned command is a major leap even for a supreme leader and effects all Iranians and not only Khamenei's own religious followers--It is an intolerable mixing of politics and religion even in a theocracy. This blatant action is tantamount to countermanding the religious advice of all other Shiite Ayatollahs in Iran and Iraq, including the grand Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf, who has the greatest religious following among Shiites around the world.

By this action Khamenei is forcing all Shiite Iranians to ignore their own spiritual guides and follow his religious instructions as the political head of state instead. Most people would see this as a step too far and an abuse of power by the supreme leader--needlessly interfering in the most basic of religious matters. The Grand Ayatollahs in Qom and Najaf are likely to see this as a direct challenge to their authority over their flock, and may do the unthinkable and consider the Iranian theocracy a threat to the Shiite religious establishment.

With the exception of the student organizations, the religious establishment in Iran is the only non government entity with grass roots that could be tapped into to organize the opposition movement and give it a reasonable chance of success. If all the Ayatollahs brake their silence and put their weight behind the Green revolution then this regime is history.

Khamenei may believe himself to be the new Khalif or Shah of Iran with power over all people, in both religious and political maters, or he could be simply inadvertently over reaching, either way he may have just made his biggest mistake yet.

Mousavi needs to act

Brave people deserve brave leadership, and so the besieged people of Tehran deserve to have their leaders share in their risks and sacrifices.
I know that Mr. Mousavi is under house arrest but if the few thousand people manage to get through the armed militias and police maybe he can try harder to join them.
Such a brave act would force the government's hand into arresting him, which would add another spark to this revolution.
Mr. Mousavi may turn out to be like Mr. Gorbachev, a catalyst for change but not destined to be the leader in the new age. Either way he needs to act and leave the rest up to the Iranian people. I hope he gets it that this is no longer about a desputed election--it's about regime change.

Iranians should be proud, Persian or Not

Most in Iran know that not all Iranians are Persians but most Iranians abroad insist they are. Perhaps it is because people might like them a little better if they associated them not with Iran but with ancient Persia.

Even as Iranians from all ethnic backgrounds fight and die on the streets of Tehran and other cities, some supporters insist on over emphasizing the persianhood of the people of Iran. This old inferiority complex was exaggerated by the bad reputation brought on by 30 years of the Islamic republic. In this day and age such thinking, regardless of its root causes, is at worst racist and at best narrow minded.

After the sacrifices and the extraordinary bravery of the Iranian men and women in the past few week it should be easier for most Iranians to use the word "Iran" without being ashamed anymore. Let us stop insisting on reminding everyone of our Persian heritage in order to entice them to respect us despite us being Iranaian.

Again, We are all Iranian but not all Persian. Afterall Mr. Moussavi himself is an Azeri Turk, and the young student who took a bullet to the head on the 20th of June was an Arab Iranian from Ahwaz; sadly he also happens to be my sister's brother in law.

Lets be proud of being Iranian again and stop pushing the "Persian" phrase all the time. Lets just pray that our brave country men and women in the front lines will keep on fighting for all of us, Persians and non-Persians.

Did I also mention how we need to distribute some DVDs to the masses and inform ordinary Iranians about our struggle?

Iran's Green revolution, Is it finally happening?

When I last left Iran 18 years ago not only had I given up on the idea of traveling back to visit, but I had also given up on the possibility of regime change in Iran in my life time. There were many more Iranians who looked at Iran from afar hoping that they would return some day but most, if not all, had given up hope.

When the latest election came, I greeted it with my usual skepticism knowing that the so called reform movement is just a faction of the ruling regime and can not be an instrument of real change.

What happened next caught me off guard and did not fit into the familiar Iranian political equations. It seems that the Iranian regime was not content to have the people chose the inconsequential post of president but decided to deny the people that privilege as well. And so the hardliner Ahmadijenad who trailed his opponents in the poles wins unexpectedly, in a landslide no less.

The sequence of events that followed were an expression of multitudes of frustrations by the people and was spontaneous and not politician driven. What the government saw as post-election demonstrations were actually anti-government demonstrations. In the early days the reformist leaders even called for the cancellation of rallies in an attempt to remain on the good graces of the supreme leader, only to see the people show up on the streets anyway. People power is driving the leaders and they're trying desperately to catch up.

As the supreme leader drew a line in the sand on Friday, asking for demonstrators to go home or there will be bloodshed, a ghost from the past appeared on the political scene to challenge him directly. Political junkies may recall that In the months before the late Ayatollah Khomeini's death there was a change in the succession plans. Up to that time the Iranian regime had widely presented the people with grand Ayatollah Montazeri as the chosen successor to Khomeini. The regim soon discovered that the more he expressed his views the more it became apparent that he is likely to allow the clerics to lose power to the people and so he quietly disappeared from public view. When Khomeini died there was another man chosen by the clergy elite to be supreme leader, Khamenei. The only thing he had in common with the late supreme leader was the similarity of name. Khomeini vs Khamenei. Even the slogans can stay the same they must have thought. There was a slight problem however, Mr. Khamenei was not high enough in the religious hierarchy to qualify for the post, he wasn't even an Ayatollah. No problem. In a few weeks he emerged with the title of ayatollah and even managed to develope a grayer beard to emphasis seniority.

Ever since that swift change of the guards Mr. Montazeri has kept to himself and thought to be under house arrest. His timing to brake his silence and come out in support of the demonstrators couldn't have been better. As the supreme leader Khamenei demanded an end to the uprising, Grand Ayaltolah Montazeri expressed the opposing religious and political view that "it would be anti-Islamic for the government to oppose people's will". Instead of calling for an end to demonstrations he called for 3 days of moaning practically inviting more demonstrations. This direct challenge to the supreme leader is unprecedented and removes a psychological and political barrier for others to follow suite.

The previously unthinkable is actually happening. The government including the supreme leader is under siege. The state media is reporting calm where there are riots. There is total black out on filming or reporting on the demonstrations. The pro government militias are on the lose attacking demonstrators. As horrible as this is, it offers a glimmer of hope as the government is now reactionary and is losing control. If the people of Iran sense that they can actually overthrow the regime they might do just that. Demonstration against election fraud can easily turn into demonstrations for the overthrow of the regime.

Ironically, at this stage the greatest threat to this uprising movement comes from its reformist leaders. They may decide that this is going too far and seek to restrain people's ambitions in order to save the Islamic theocracy.

We are in uncharted territory but as the government moves in to crackdown there is more likelihood for a shift from demonstrations to an all out green revolution. And so I find myself, and for the first time in 18 years, hopeful about the future of Iran. I'm even starting to dream about travelling freely to see my family one day.

Until then I pray that regime change will not have a high toll in blood of the Iranian people.

Iran, A dirrect challange to the supreme leader

There is a new twist in the unfolding political struggle in Iran. An old foe of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Montazeri declared his support for the demonstrators and contradicted the supreme leader directly by saying that the government needs to respect the will of the people. Ayatollah Montazeri was the original heir apparent for the late Ayatollah Khomeini but he was removed from that position before Khomeini's death and later replaced with Khamenei. Ayatollah Montazeri was then forced to maintain a low profile ever since.

A couple of decades later Mr. Montazeri is probably one of the few people who can draw support from a wide segment of the population including those who support the current regime. His words of defiance go beyond the political, his challenging the supreme leader on religious grounds too. He called for 3 days of morning and for the government to respect of people's right to protest as a religious duty of the government, while the supreme leader is calling for people to leave the streets and is threatening them with blood shed if they don't. The undermining of the supreme leader's religious and political authority was unthinkable in the past and it is a turning point for the people's struggle with the regime.

This a lose lose for the government, if they allow the demonstrations to go on they lose face and risk an eventual loss of power, on the other hand if they crack down they risk a full blown revolution now.

The best part of this is that Montazeri can be the spiritual leader of a transitional government in case of a regime change. This would minimize the chances of civil war.

I am personally encouraged to the point that I feel the end of the regime is finally possible. Lets hope it can happen with the least of blood shed.

Iran's battle lines are drawn

After Khamenei's hard line speech on Friday there should be no more confusion about what it would take for the demonstrators to effect real change in Iran. Sooner or later everyone will realize that there can only be one final authority in Iran, either the will of the people or the will of the unelected supreme leader, not both.

Ironically, all the candidates in the recent election, including Mr. Mousavi, officially support the supremacy of Mr. Khamenei over the wil of the people. If Iranians have the courage to stand to the government for a few more weeks other elements in society and regime will have to take sides between these two competing interests, and that includes the Iranian military.

Help comes from within not from without so lets hope that this time all the internal elements will align to ensure that the sacrifices by the people of Iran are rewarded with real freedom.

Last but not least, lets not forget the large segment of society that depends on the current government for their livelihood. Once the revolution is underway, if that's what this really is, there need to be a general amnesty issued for all who worked for the regime, including the security agencies and revolutionary guards. Without such amnesty we risk an all out civil war.

IRAN, the fake democracy

Watching the news coverage of the Iranian presidential elections I am getting the impressions that the world, including the Iranians themselves, are starting to believe the notion that there are actually democratic elections in Iran.

The minor details are easily forgotten, such as the, never mentioned, vetting process in place for presidential candidates that excludes anyone who disagrees with the current form of government in Iran. There is also the minor matter of the supreme leader oversight. The Iranian constitution stipulates that all elected officials in the Iran, including the president, are subject to the veto power and guidance of the unelected "supreme leader". The Iranian presidential election could easily be called the "sidekick election" for selecting the sidekick to the supreme leader.

Looking at the presidential candidates over the years the names are starting to look familiar, that because all the candidates are from within the current regime. A select few are simply changing roles within the same government. Their commitment to the regime has already been tested over and over again making the vetting easy.

The news media divides the presidential candidates into conservatives and moderates but they really should be divided into ultra-conservatives and moderate conservatives as any candidate to the left of that never gets past the vetting process.

The Iranian younger generations are made to believe that they are actually electing their government, and worse, that the past failures in Iran are a consequence of their previous votes. Those who are truly responsible are never blamed or punished as they are never elected. They quietly supervise those elected and let them take the blame for the government failures, in the process allowing the public to vent their anger by electing new sidekicks once in a while.

The first election in the Islamic republic was the election to establish the form of government after the 1979 revolution. Even then there was only one choice on the ballet, an Islamic Republic (a theocracy) or nothing. The ballot read "Yes or No to the Islamic republic". That election sat the stage for future elections where Iranians got to choose, provided that government decides what or who can be on the ballet. The People get to vote but only for select posts and from a pool of select people.

Despite all the hoopla the reality in Iran is that Iranian can't even vote for their city mayors or the governors of their provinces as those government posts are deemed too sensitive to be opened to people's vote. The government in Tehran appoints every provincial governor and every city mayor.

In the next few days some Iranians will be celebrating the fake victory of their fake representative government while the real, unelected, government of Iran gets another 4 years of breathing room to rule. They will even throw in an occasional drama of power struggles over some inconsequential post in the government.

The Iranians best hope lies in the remote possibility that one of these so called presidents would have the balls to lead a grass root reform movement that would change the Constitution and get rid of the unelected supreme leadership of the republic--peacefully of course.