The point of no return in Iran

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_yBgd88f50

For the past 7 months the Iranian regime seemed to think that by exercising extreme violence on the street they can avert a new revolution in Iran. They base this strategy on the false belief that the fall of the shah's regime in 1979 was a result of faint heartedness on his part when it came to the crackdown on demonstrators. The events on the ground today are proving them wrong as their heavy handed strategy has left the demonstrators with no choice but to fight back and defend themselves by use of force.

The demonstrators in Tehran today (Dec 27) responded to the sever beatings by the security forces by organizing and attacking those forces. They managed to overwhelm the security forces in some areas, a site that is likely to repeat itself in the days to come.

Just like in the 1979 revolution, the next stages are sure to come, public strikes and the defection of security officers to join the masses. History is more likely to repeat itself than not.

If I were an Iranian official I'd be packing my bags and sending some $ to switzerland.

Khamenei's mistake could end his Regime

Khamenei did not need to antagonize all the grand Ayatollahs in Iran and Iraq, for no reason what so ever, but yet he did.

Khamenei issued a decree, on Sat the 19th of september, "ordering" all Iranians to stop fasting and celebrate the Eid on Sunday, rather than Monday, contrary to the decrees of all the other Ayatollahs.

In Shiite Islam individuals are required to select a senior clergyman, an Ayatollah, to be their spiritual guide in religious matters, such as when to start and end the fasting month of Ramadan. Ayatollah Khamenei, like the other Ayatollahs, has his own religious followers, inside and outside the country. He is also the only Ayatollah who is the head of state for all Iranians. This political title does not change the fact that most Iranians, regardless of their political allegiance, look to Ayatollahs other than Khamenei for spiritual guidance when it comes to religious matters.

As a religious leader Khamenei is expected to exercise his purgative in issuing edicts for his own religious followers on issues such as what day to start and end of the fasting month of Ramadan. Such religious edicts are expected to be directed at his religious followers and not be forced on others.

The aforementioned command is a major leap even for a supreme leader and effects all Iranians and not only Khamenei's own religious followers--It is an intolerable mixing of politics and religion even in a theocracy. This blatant action is tantamount to countermanding the religious advice of all other Shiite Ayatollahs in Iran and Iraq, including the grand Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf, who has the greatest religious following among Shiites around the world.

By this action Khamenei is forcing all Shiite Iranians to ignore their own spiritual guides and follow his religious instructions as the political head of state instead. Most people would see this as a step too far and an abuse of power by the supreme leader--needlessly interfering in the most basic of religious matters. The Grand Ayatollahs in Qom and Najaf are likely to see this as a direct challenge to their authority over their flock, and may do the unthinkable and consider the Iranian theocracy a threat to the Shiite religious establishment.

With the exception of the student organizations, the religious establishment in Iran is the only non government entity with grass roots that could be tapped into to organize the opposition movement and give it a reasonable chance of success. If all the Ayatollahs brake their silence and put their weight behind the Green revolution then this regime is history.

Khamenei may believe himself to be the new Khalif or Shah of Iran with power over all people, in both religious and political maters, or he could be simply inadvertently over reaching, either way he may have just made his biggest mistake yet.

Iran, A dirrect challange to the supreme leader

There is a new twist in the unfolding political struggle in Iran. An old foe of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Montazeri declared his support for the demonstrators and contradicted the supreme leader directly by saying that the government needs to respect the will of the people. Ayatollah Montazeri was the original heir apparent for the late Ayatollah Khomeini but he was removed from that position before Khomeini's death and later replaced with Khamenei. Ayatollah Montazeri was then forced to maintain a low profile ever since.

A couple of decades later Mr. Montazeri is probably one of the few people who can draw support from a wide segment of the population including those who support the current regime. His words of defiance go beyond the political, his challenging the supreme leader on religious grounds too. He called for 3 days of morning and for the government to respect of people's right to protest as a religious duty of the government, while the supreme leader is calling for people to leave the streets and is threatening them with blood shed if they don't. The undermining of the supreme leader's religious and political authority was unthinkable in the past and it is a turning point for the people's struggle with the regime.

This a lose lose for the government, if they allow the demonstrations to go on they lose face and risk an eventual loss of power, on the other hand if they crack down they risk a full blown revolution now.

The best part of this is that Montazeri can be the spiritual leader of a transitional government in case of a regime change. This would minimize the chances of civil war.

I am personally encouraged to the point that I feel the end of the regime is finally possible. Lets hope it can happen with the least of blood shed.