Lessons for Iranians in the Libyan Revolution

Iranian revolutionaries have tried and failed in the past two years to make significant progress in their ambition to overturn the regime in Iran. For those revolutionaries, and anyone supporting them, there is a lesson to be learned from events in Libya, as the Libyan and Iranian regime share many features in common.

Both countries have a weak Army, intentionally replaced by paramilitary forces, whose loyalty was cultivated over decades of dictatorship. The Iranian Basij and revolutionary Guard has its counterpart in Libya in the form of citizen militias and Gaddafi security brigades.

Libya, just like Iran, limits foreign media, and so the events on the ground don’t make it to the average Libyan homes. While Aljazeera is broadcasting in libya, they are jammed in the capital and have no reporters on the ground, except now in liberated eastern parts of Libya.

In Iran, the persian language BBC is broadcasting in Iran but has few reporters on the ground. and those reporters are banned from reporting on any demonstrations, or be on location in hot spots. The BBC is also being jammed at the peak of street unrest. Moreover, the BBC doesn't have the budget of Aljazeera, nor are they willing to defy government restrictions and risk arrest of their reporters.

The Libyan leader and his hardcore supporters appear immune to political or street pressure and are creating a situation on the ground that leaves very little way out of the crisis short of the forceful removal of Gaddafi. Gaddafi had no problem using the air-force, artillery, and mercenaries to quell the libyan revolt; There is footage in the media showing the aftermath of mass execution of security and military personal who refused to follow orders to shoot at the protestors. They are gearing up in Libya for a military battle for control of the capital and Gaddafi bunker compound within Tripoli, the same compound bombed by the USA during the Reagan years.

The Libyans are going to succeed at the end of the day but we will likely see thousands more killed and injured before they get to Gaddafi’s. The United States should, and likely will, impose a “no fly zone” in Libya to prevent the use of Libyan air-force to bomb the demonstrators. If we don’t we lose a chance to show support to the people of Libya in their hour of need, and in the process risk damaging our future relation with that nation of Libya and its future representative government.

In case of Iran, the regime has made it clear that they think that the Shah of Iran lost in 1979 because he wasn’t ruthless enough and stopped short of using “sufficient violence” to quell the Iranian revolution then. This guiding principle for the government strategy in Iran has meant that the violence against opposition protests is organized and unrelenting, designed to shock and ow the demonstrators. Just like in Libya, It is hard to imagine how 100% peaceful protest alone will dislodge this government. There will likely be an element of violence to combat the hardcore government forces that will fight till the end to preserve the regime, this will have to come from defecting military units towards the end of the revolt.

The Iranians have failed in the past two years in their revolution, mostly because of the government success in keeping them isolated from the world and the general population with total news blackout. They have experienced total internet shut down and cellular phone network restrictions which made it impossible for demonstrators to get their footage to the BBC, and when they did, it came a day or two after the events casing them to lose momentum every time they pushed to the streets. To complicate maters the BBC persian TV had limited coverage and broadcast ability due to government jamming in Iran. In short, the world knew what goes on in Iran in the days of demonstration but most Iranians at home didn't.

The Iranians don’t need military support or billions of dollars to be spend on destabilizing the government in Iran. Their needs are more practical and simple, they include:

-Free and uninterrupted satellite internet access to send out their footage of demonstrations.

-Professional cameras with or without reporters filming in the streets of Tehran and overcoming the government restrictions.

-Blanket 24/7 coverage by the BBC persian TV when the demonstration erupt again and be able to broadcast current events so that more Iranians can be moved into joining the revolution. The United States should consider financing the BBC for this coverage as the BBC has no budget for such extended coverage; The BBC had major budget cuts this year. I suspect that most Iranians would appreciate such moral and media support from the US and the west, and would not consider it interference in their internal affairs. Incidentally, voice of America broadcast, financed by the USA, is not as respected as the BBC as a credible source of news in Iran.

-The BBC and western countries should use all available technical option to limit the Iranian government future jamming of the BBC broadcast.

The Iranians have no hope of success minus all these elements and every time they go out to demonstrate they risk dying or being arrested without the benefit of media documenting their scarifies and conveying their cry for help to their own people. There is safety in numbers and media coverage, and so I hope they get both this year and 2011 will be the year of freedom for Iran too.

Iranians should be proud, Persian or Not

Most in Iran know that not all Iranians are Persians but most Iranians abroad insist they are. Perhaps it is because people might like them a little better if they associated them not with Iran but with ancient Persia.

Even as Iranians from all ethnic backgrounds fight and die on the streets of Tehran and other cities, some supporters insist on over emphasizing the persianhood of the people of Iran. This old inferiority complex was exaggerated by the bad reputation brought on by 30 years of the Islamic republic. In this day and age such thinking, regardless of its root causes, is at worst racist and at best narrow minded.

After the sacrifices and the extraordinary bravery of the Iranian men and women in the past few week it should be easier for most Iranians to use the word "Iran" without being ashamed anymore. Let us stop insisting on reminding everyone of our Persian heritage in order to entice them to respect us despite us being Iranaian.

Again, We are all Iranian but not all Persian. Afterall Mr. Moussavi himself is an Azeri Turk, and the young student who took a bullet to the head on the 20th of June was an Arab Iranian from Ahwaz; sadly he also happens to be my sister's brother in law.

Lets be proud of being Iranian again and stop pushing the "Persian" phrase all the time. Lets just pray that our brave country men and women in the front lines will keep on fighting for all of us, Persians and non-Persians.

Did I also mention how we need to distribute some DVDs to the masses and inform ordinary Iranians about our struggle?

Iran's Green revolution, Is it finally happening?

When I last left Iran 18 years ago not only had I given up on the idea of traveling back to visit, but I had also given up on the possibility of regime change in Iran in my life time. There were many more Iranians who looked at Iran from afar hoping that they would return some day but most, if not all, had given up hope.

When the latest election came, I greeted it with my usual skepticism knowing that the so called reform movement is just a faction of the ruling regime and can not be an instrument of real change.

What happened next caught me off guard and did not fit into the familiar Iranian political equations. It seems that the Iranian regime was not content to have the people chose the inconsequential post of president but decided to deny the people that privilege as well. And so the hardliner Ahmadijenad who trailed his opponents in the poles wins unexpectedly, in a landslide no less.

The sequence of events that followed were an expression of multitudes of frustrations by the people and was spontaneous and not politician driven. What the government saw as post-election demonstrations were actually anti-government demonstrations. In the early days the reformist leaders even called for the cancellation of rallies in an attempt to remain on the good graces of the supreme leader, only to see the people show up on the streets anyway. People power is driving the leaders and they're trying desperately to catch up.

As the supreme leader drew a line in the sand on Friday, asking for demonstrators to go home or there will be bloodshed, a ghost from the past appeared on the political scene to challenge him directly. Political junkies may recall that In the months before the late Ayatollah Khomeini's death there was a change in the succession plans. Up to that time the Iranian regime had widely presented the people with grand Ayatollah Montazeri as the chosen successor to Khomeini. The regim soon discovered that the more he expressed his views the more it became apparent that he is likely to allow the clerics to lose power to the people and so he quietly disappeared from public view. When Khomeini died there was another man chosen by the clergy elite to be supreme leader, Khamenei. The only thing he had in common with the late supreme leader was the similarity of name. Khomeini vs Khamenei. Even the slogans can stay the same they must have thought. There was a slight problem however, Mr. Khamenei was not high enough in the religious hierarchy to qualify for the post, he wasn't even an Ayatollah. No problem. In a few weeks he emerged with the title of ayatollah and even managed to develope a grayer beard to emphasis seniority.

Ever since that swift change of the guards Mr. Montazeri has kept to himself and thought to be under house arrest. His timing to brake his silence and come out in support of the demonstrators couldn't have been better. As the supreme leader Khamenei demanded an end to the uprising, Grand Ayaltolah Montazeri expressed the opposing religious and political view that "it would be anti-Islamic for the government to oppose people's will". Instead of calling for an end to demonstrations he called for 3 days of moaning practically inviting more demonstrations. This direct challenge to the supreme leader is unprecedented and removes a psychological and political barrier for others to follow suite.

The previously unthinkable is actually happening. The government including the supreme leader is under siege. The state media is reporting calm where there are riots. There is total black out on filming or reporting on the demonstrations. The pro government militias are on the lose attacking demonstrators. As horrible as this is, it offers a glimmer of hope as the government is now reactionary and is losing control. If the people of Iran sense that they can actually overthrow the regime they might do just that. Demonstration against election fraud can easily turn into demonstrations for the overthrow of the regime.

Ironically, at this stage the greatest threat to this uprising movement comes from its reformist leaders. They may decide that this is going too far and seek to restrain people's ambitions in order to save the Islamic theocracy.

We are in uncharted territory but as the government moves in to crackdown there is more likelihood for a shift from demonstrations to an all out green revolution. And so I find myself, and for the first time in 18 years, hopeful about the future of Iran. I'm even starting to dream about travelling freely to see my family one day.

Until then I pray that regime change will not have a high toll in blood of the Iranian people.