Mousavi needs to act

Brave people deserve brave leadership, and so the besieged people of Tehran deserve to have their leaders share in their risks and sacrifices.
I know that Mr. Mousavi is under house arrest but if the few thousand people manage to get through the armed militias and police maybe he can try harder to join them.
Such a brave act would force the government's hand into arresting him, which would add another spark to this revolution.
Mr. Mousavi may turn out to be like Mr. Gorbachev, a catalyst for change but not destined to be the leader in the new age. Either way he needs to act and leave the rest up to the Iranian people. I hope he gets it that this is no longer about a desputed election--it's about regime change.

Iranians should be proud, Persian or Not

Most in Iran know that not all Iranians are Persians but most Iranians abroad insist they are. Perhaps it is because people might like them a little better if they associated them not with Iran but with ancient Persia.

Even as Iranians from all ethnic backgrounds fight and die on the streets of Tehran and other cities, some supporters insist on over emphasizing the persianhood of the people of Iran. This old inferiority complex was exaggerated by the bad reputation brought on by 30 years of the Islamic republic. In this day and age such thinking, regardless of its root causes, is at worst racist and at best narrow minded.

After the sacrifices and the extraordinary bravery of the Iranian men and women in the past few week it should be easier for most Iranians to use the word "Iran" without being ashamed anymore. Let us stop insisting on reminding everyone of our Persian heritage in order to entice them to respect us despite us being Iranaian.

Again, We are all Iranian but not all Persian. Afterall Mr. Moussavi himself is an Azeri Turk, and the young student who took a bullet to the head on the 20th of June was an Arab Iranian from Ahwaz; sadly he also happens to be my sister's brother in law.

Lets be proud of being Iranian again and stop pushing the "Persian" phrase all the time. Lets just pray that our brave country men and women in the front lines will keep on fighting for all of us, Persians and non-Persians.

Did I also mention how we need to distribute some DVDs to the masses and inform ordinary Iranians about our struggle?

DVDs maybe the key to Iran's Green Revolution

There is no doubt that the students and the facebook members of Iran are predominantly behind the fledgling green revolution. What is in doubt is the awareness and support of the millions of poorer Iranians with no access to alternate media. It is not clear if they are aware of the extent of oppression and killings by the government security forces on the streets. If the Media black out in Iran holds, the revolutionaries may remain cut off from the majority of the poor Iranians. Without those masses in southern Tehran and the provinces the revolution can not succeed.

In 1979 ayatollah khomeini, faced with a simillar Iranian media black out, spread his message from France through smuggled cassette tapes. The hope of the new Green revolution may lye in DVDs and CDs as even the poor with no facebook accounts have access to DVD players. Lets burn some DVDs and get the word out. There is security in numbers and this might help bring more people out to support the thousands of brave Iranians already on the street.

I was touched last night as I watched a clip of young demonstrators being charged by the police. As the crowd saw tear gas and smoke rising ahead of them they chanted "be brave, we're all together". With no one to help them and surrounded by so many security forces they are indeed brave as they only have each other.

Iran's Green revolution, Is it finally happening?

When I last left Iran 18 years ago not only had I given up on the idea of traveling back to visit, but I had also given up on the possibility of regime change in Iran in my life time. There were many more Iranians who looked at Iran from afar hoping that they would return some day but most, if not all, had given up hope.

When the latest election came, I greeted it with my usual skepticism knowing that the so called reform movement is just a faction of the ruling regime and can not be an instrument of real change.

What happened next caught me off guard and did not fit into the familiar Iranian political equations. It seems that the Iranian regime was not content to have the people chose the inconsequential post of president but decided to deny the people that privilege as well. And so the hardliner Ahmadijenad who trailed his opponents in the poles wins unexpectedly, in a landslide no less.

The sequence of events that followed were an expression of multitudes of frustrations by the people and was spontaneous and not politician driven. What the government saw as post-election demonstrations were actually anti-government demonstrations. In the early days the reformist leaders even called for the cancellation of rallies in an attempt to remain on the good graces of the supreme leader, only to see the people show up on the streets anyway. People power is driving the leaders and they're trying desperately to catch up.

As the supreme leader drew a line in the sand on Friday, asking for demonstrators to go home or there will be bloodshed, a ghost from the past appeared on the political scene to challenge him directly. Political junkies may recall that In the months before the late Ayatollah Khomeini's death there was a change in the succession plans. Up to that time the Iranian regime had widely presented the people with grand Ayatollah Montazeri as the chosen successor to Khomeini. The regim soon discovered that the more he expressed his views the more it became apparent that he is likely to allow the clerics to lose power to the people and so he quietly disappeared from public view. When Khomeini died there was another man chosen by the clergy elite to be supreme leader, Khamenei. The only thing he had in common with the late supreme leader was the similarity of name. Khomeini vs Khamenei. Even the slogans can stay the same they must have thought. There was a slight problem however, Mr. Khamenei was not high enough in the religious hierarchy to qualify for the post, he wasn't even an Ayatollah. No problem. In a few weeks he emerged with the title of ayatollah and even managed to develope a grayer beard to emphasis seniority.

Ever since that swift change of the guards Mr. Montazeri has kept to himself and thought to be under house arrest. His timing to brake his silence and come out in support of the demonstrators couldn't have been better. As the supreme leader Khamenei demanded an end to the uprising, Grand Ayaltolah Montazeri expressed the opposing religious and political view that "it would be anti-Islamic for the government to oppose people's will". Instead of calling for an end to demonstrations he called for 3 days of moaning practically inviting more demonstrations. This direct challenge to the supreme leader is unprecedented and removes a psychological and political barrier for others to follow suite.

The previously unthinkable is actually happening. The government including the supreme leader is under siege. The state media is reporting calm where there are riots. There is total black out on filming or reporting on the demonstrations. The pro government militias are on the lose attacking demonstrators. As horrible as this is, it offers a glimmer of hope as the government is now reactionary and is losing control. If the people of Iran sense that they can actually overthrow the regime they might do just that. Demonstration against election fraud can easily turn into demonstrations for the overthrow of the regime.

Ironically, at this stage the greatest threat to this uprising movement comes from its reformist leaders. They may decide that this is going too far and seek to restrain people's ambitions in order to save the Islamic theocracy.

We are in uncharted territory but as the government moves in to crackdown there is more likelihood for a shift from demonstrations to an all out green revolution. And so I find myself, and for the first time in 18 years, hopeful about the future of Iran. I'm even starting to dream about travelling freely to see my family one day.

Until then I pray that regime change will not have a high toll in blood of the Iranian people.

Iran, A dirrect challange to the supreme leader

There is a new twist in the unfolding political struggle in Iran. An old foe of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Montazeri declared his support for the demonstrators and contradicted the supreme leader directly by saying that the government needs to respect the will of the people. Ayatollah Montazeri was the original heir apparent for the late Ayatollah Khomeini but he was removed from that position before Khomeini's death and later replaced with Khamenei. Ayatollah Montazeri was then forced to maintain a low profile ever since.

A couple of decades later Mr. Montazeri is probably one of the few people who can draw support from a wide segment of the population including those who support the current regime. His words of defiance go beyond the political, his challenging the supreme leader on religious grounds too. He called for 3 days of morning and for the government to respect of people's right to protest as a religious duty of the government, while the supreme leader is calling for people to leave the streets and is threatening them with blood shed if they don't. The undermining of the supreme leader's religious and political authority was unthinkable in the past and it is a turning point for the people's struggle with the regime.

This a lose lose for the government, if they allow the demonstrations to go on they lose face and risk an eventual loss of power, on the other hand if they crack down they risk a full blown revolution now.

The best part of this is that Montazeri can be the spiritual leader of a transitional government in case of a regime change. This would minimize the chances of civil war.

I am personally encouraged to the point that I feel the end of the regime is finally possible. Lets hope it can happen with the least of blood shed.

Iran's battle lines are drawn

After Khamenei's hard line speech on Friday there should be no more confusion about what it would take for the demonstrators to effect real change in Iran. Sooner or later everyone will realize that there can only be one final authority in Iran, either the will of the people or the will of the unelected supreme leader, not both.

Ironically, all the candidates in the recent election, including Mr. Mousavi, officially support the supremacy of Mr. Khamenei over the wil of the people. If Iranians have the courage to stand to the government for a few more weeks other elements in society and regime will have to take sides between these two competing interests, and that includes the Iranian military.

Help comes from within not from without so lets hope that this time all the internal elements will align to ensure that the sacrifices by the people of Iran are rewarded with real freedom.

Last but not least, lets not forget the large segment of society that depends on the current government for their livelihood. Once the revolution is underway, if that's what this really is, there need to be a general amnesty issued for all who worked for the regime, including the security agencies and revolutionary guards. Without such amnesty we risk an all out civil war.

IRAN, glimmer of hope and lessons unlearned

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the re-election of Mr. Ahmadinejad offers a glimmer of hope for an eventual regime change. Instead of a new president, popular with the elite and the educated, we got the ignorant radical back. Instead of pacification of the masses we have anger and unrest in the big cities. There is no guarantee that this would create a momentum for bigger change but there is no denying that an influential segment of the population is denied its choice of pretend president. The demonstrations that follow can be the ice breaker for a nation frozen in fear for 30 years. Grass root leadership may still emerge from this but its still a long shot.

The reason for the unfavorable odds for change can be found in the election results themselves. If we believe the election results, Mr. Ahmedinejad appears to have support among those living in rural areas, the less educated, the more religious, and the traditional segments of the Iranian society. Of note, these same segments of society were at the core of the Iranian revolution in 1979. Even though the students and merchants are credited with toppling the Shah, the reality is that the poorest in Iran were the ones that made the revolution possible by coming out in their thousands and millions to demonstrate their dissatisfaction with the Shah's regime.

The elite of years ago didn't get it and the elite of today apparently don't either. They can not make a drastic change, or even a small one, without addressing the needs of the poor and the less fortunate in Iran.

As a result of having an entrenched "dictatorship lite" for 30 years is that more than half of the population in Iran works for the government one way or the other. Their biggest fear is that with any kind of change comes a loss of the very little they have. They not only fear for their livelihood but they also fear for their lives, baring in mind the executions that followed the last regime change.

If the elites of Iran want to effect change they need to treat the poor and traditional majority of Iran with some deference and convince them that their lives and livelihood will be protected if the regime does eventually change to a more pro-western regime. Chanting "death to the dictator" in rallies certainly doesn't help allay these fears. In the mind of many, Death to the dictator could easily mean "death to the dictator and his past and present supporters".

IRAN, the fake democracy

Watching the news coverage of the Iranian presidential elections I am getting the impressions that the world, including the Iranians themselves, are starting to believe the notion that there are actually democratic elections in Iran.

The minor details are easily forgotten, such as the, never mentioned, vetting process in place for presidential candidates that excludes anyone who disagrees with the current form of government in Iran. There is also the minor matter of the supreme leader oversight. The Iranian constitution stipulates that all elected officials in the Iran, including the president, are subject to the veto power and guidance of the unelected "supreme leader". The Iranian presidential election could easily be called the "sidekick election" for selecting the sidekick to the supreme leader.

Looking at the presidential candidates over the years the names are starting to look familiar, that because all the candidates are from within the current regime. A select few are simply changing roles within the same government. Their commitment to the regime has already been tested over and over again making the vetting easy.

The news media divides the presidential candidates into conservatives and moderates but they really should be divided into ultra-conservatives and moderate conservatives as any candidate to the left of that never gets past the vetting process.

The Iranian younger generations are made to believe that they are actually electing their government, and worse, that the past failures in Iran are a consequence of their previous votes. Those who are truly responsible are never blamed or punished as they are never elected. They quietly supervise those elected and let them take the blame for the government failures, in the process allowing the public to vent their anger by electing new sidekicks once in a while.

The first election in the Islamic republic was the election to establish the form of government after the 1979 revolution. Even then there was only one choice on the ballet, an Islamic Republic (a theocracy) or nothing. The ballot read "Yes or No to the Islamic republic". That election sat the stage for future elections where Iranians got to choose, provided that government decides what or who can be on the ballet. The People get to vote but only for select posts and from a pool of select people.

Despite all the hoopla the reality in Iran is that Iranian can't even vote for their city mayors or the governors of their provinces as those government posts are deemed too sensitive to be opened to people's vote. The government in Tehran appoints every provincial governor and every city mayor.

In the next few days some Iranians will be celebrating the fake victory of their fake representative government while the real, unelected, government of Iran gets another 4 years of breathing room to rule. They will even throw in an occasional drama of power struggles over some inconsequential post in the government.

The Iranians best hope lies in the remote possibility that one of these so called presidents would have the balls to lead a grass root reform movement that would change the Constitution and get rid of the unelected supreme leadership of the republic--peacefully of course.