Sunday, June 21, 2009

Iran, A dirrect challange to the supreme leader


There is a new twist in the unfolding political struggle in Iran. An old foe of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Montazeri declared his support for the demonstrators and contradicted the supreme leader directly by saying that the government needs to respect the will of the people. Ayatollah Montazeri was the original heir apparent for the late Ayatollah Khomeini but he was removed from that position before Khomeini's death and later replaced with Khamenei. Ayatollah Montazeri was then forced to maintain a low profile ever since.

A couple of decades later Mr. Montazeri is probably one of the few people who can draw support from a wide segment of the population including those who support the current regime. His words of defiance go beyond the political, his challenging the supreme leader on religious grounds too. He called for 3 days of morning and for the government to respect of people's right to protest as a religious duty of the government, while the supreme leader is calling for people to leave the streets and is threatening them with blood shed if they don't. The undermining of the supreme leader's religious and political authority was unthinkable in the past and it is a turning point for the people's struggle with the regime.

This a lose lose for the government, if they allow the demonstrations to go on they lose face and risk an eventual loss of power, on the other hand if they crack down they risk a full blown revolution now.

The best part of this is that Montazeri can be the spiritual leader of a transitional government in case of a regime change. This would minimize the chances of civil war.

I am personally encouraged to the point that I feel the end of the regime is finally possible. Lets hope it can happen with the least of blood shed.

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