The new Shiite vs Shiite fighting in Iraq between government forces and Shiite militias is the latest chapter of the post war Iraqi political evolution. There is much discussion about the factions and their leaders but little is being said about the hidden agendas that drive the militia groups to seek political and military domination of the Basra region. It seems to me that the seeds of this conflict can be traced to the partial decentralization of the oil sector in Iraq.
The ill advised decentralization of the previously nationalised oil sector has created an economic incentive for local militias to fight for control of oil rich regions, and to have a vested interest in keeping the central government in Baghdad weak. The central government will never be strong enough to control Iraq as a whole unless it has full control over the oil, thus allowing local politics to be conducted without the hidden oil agendas.
The fight in the oil rich Basra region is not going to be the last fight over oil. As soon as the dust settles the oil rich Kurdish areas could follow, with Arab Iraqis (Sunni and Shiite) fighting to cease control of some or all oil rich Kurdish (Sunni) areas in the north.
The shifting alliances in Iraq is in part due to the desperate attempt of all groups to gain control over all or a portion of the Iraqi oil riches which is now open for local control for the first time in Iraqi history.
In my humble opinion the solutions for much of the simmering internal political and military conflict in Iraq has and will always be the "total re-nationalization" of Iraqi oil industry. It may sound un-American in principle, but it could be the greatest American contribution to the long term security in Iraq.
