Iranian revolutionaries have tried and failed in the past two years to make significant progress in their ambition to overturn the regime in Iran. For those revolutionaries, and anyone supporting them, there is a lesson to be learned from events in Libya, as the Libyan and Iranian regime share many features in common.
Both countries have a weak Army, intentionally replaced by paramilitary forces, whose loyalty was cultivated over decades of dictatorship. The Iranian Basij and revolutionary Guard has its counterpart in Libya in the form of citizen militias and Gaddafi security brigades.
Libya, just like Iran, limits foreign media, and so the events on the ground don’t make it to the average Libyan homes. While Aljazeera is broadcasting in libya, they are jammed in the capital and have no reporters on the ground, except now in liberated eastern parts of Libya.
In Iran, the persian language BBC is broadcasting in Iran but has few reporters on the ground. and those reporters are banned from reporting on any demonstrations, or be on location in hot spots. The BBC is also being jammed at the peak of street unrest. Moreover, the BBC doesn't have the budget of Aljazeera, nor are they willing to defy government restrictions and risk arrest of their reporters.
The Libyan leader and his hardcore supporters appear immune to political or street pressure and are creating a situation on the ground that leaves very little way out of the crisis short of the forceful removal of Gaddafi. Gaddafi had no problem using the air-force, artillery, and mercenaries to quell the libyan revolt; There is footage in the media showing the aftermath of mass execution of security and military personal who refused to follow orders to shoot at the protestors. They are gearing up in Libya for a military battle for control of the capital and Gaddafi bunker compound within Tripoli, the same compound bombed by the USA during the Reagan years.
The Libyans are going to succeed at the end of the day but we will likely see thousands more killed and injured before they get to Gaddafi’s. The United States should, and likely will, impose a “no fly zone” in Libya to prevent the use of Libyan air-force to bomb the demonstrators. If we don’t we lose a chance to show support to the people of Libya in their hour of need, and in the process risk damaging our future relation with that nation of Libya and its future representative government.
In case of Iran, the regime has made it clear that they think that the Shah of Iran lost in 1979 because he wasn’t ruthless enough and stopped short of using “sufficient violence” to quell the Iranian revolution then. This guiding principle for the government strategy in Iran has meant that the violence against opposition protests is organized and unrelenting, designed to shock and ow the demonstrators. Just like in Libya, It is hard to imagine how 100% peaceful protest alone will dislodge this government. There will likely be an element of violence to combat the hardcore government forces that will fight till the end to preserve the regime, this will have to come from defecting military units towards the end of the revolt.
The Iranians have failed in the past two years in their revolution, mostly because of the government success in keeping them isolated from the world and the general population with total news blackout. They have experienced total internet shut down and cellular phone network restrictions which made it impossible for demonstrators to get their footage to the BBC, and when they did, it came a day or two after the events casing them to lose momentum every time they pushed to the streets. To complicate maters the BBC persian TV had limited coverage and broadcast ability due to government jamming in Iran. In short, the world knew what goes on in Iran in the days of demonstration but most Iranians at home didn't.
The Iranians don’t need military support or billions of dollars to be spend on destabilizing the government in Iran. Their needs are more practical and simple, they include:
-Free and uninterrupted satellite internet access to send out their footage of demonstrations.
-Professional cameras with or without reporters filming in the streets of Tehran and overcoming the government restrictions.
-Blanket 24/7 coverage by the BBC persian TV when the demonstration erupt again and be able to broadcast current events so that more Iranians can be moved into joining the revolution. The United States should consider financing the BBC for this coverage as the BBC has no budget for such extended coverage; The BBC had major budget cuts this year. I suspect that most Iranians would appreciate such moral and media support from the US and the west, and would not consider it interference in their internal affairs. Incidentally, voice of America broadcast, financed by the USA, is not as respected as the BBC as a credible source of news in Iran.
-The BBC and western countries should use all available technical option to limit the Iranian government future jamming of the BBC broadcast.
The Iranians have no hope of success minus all these elements and every time they go out to demonstrate they risk dying or being arrested without the benefit of media documenting their scarifies and conveying their cry for help to their own people. There is safety in numbers and media coverage, and so I hope they get both this year and 2011 will be the year of freedom for Iran too.
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