It's the economy stupid, Even in Iran

Many following Iranian politics are waiting and hoping for some sort of major political event that would push the Green revolution over the hump and lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime.

The main problem this Iranian revolution has had is that the educated elite are the only ones revolting, while the majority of other Iranians are still on the sidelines.

There is one event that might motivate the other socioeconomic classes to join the green revolution and it happens to be the brainchild of the government itself. Facing a budget deficit and impending sanctions, the Iranian government just approved a measure to take away subsidies on some basic commodities, like gasoline.

The gas prices in Iran are about to increase by at least 350%. Imagine if Gas prices in the US went from $2.7 to $9.45 overnight. The amazing thing is that if the Iranian government is doing this at a time when the political future of the regime is in jeopardy. They think their plan to pay qualified families a stipend will lessen the devastating psychological impact of such a jump in inflation.

Like other dictatorships in history, the dictators are the last to realize that their time is up. East Germans had a military parade a month before the Berlin wall fell, and in similar fashion the Iranians are increasing the cost of commodities for the poor during a major political turmoil. This political suicide will be put into action within the next 12 months; I can't wait!

The greatest thing about the dictators of Iran is that they seem to be more arrogant than they are stupid, which suits me just fine.

DVDs maybe the key to Iran's Green Revolution

There is no doubt that the students and the facebook members of Iran are predominantly behind the fledgling green revolution. What is in doubt is the awareness and support of the millions of poorer Iranians with no access to alternate media. It is not clear if they are aware of the extent of oppression and killings by the government security forces on the streets. If the Media black out in Iran holds, the revolutionaries may remain cut off from the majority of the poor Iranians. Without those masses in southern Tehran and the provinces the revolution can not succeed.

In 1979 ayatollah khomeini, faced with a simillar Iranian media black out, spread his message from France through smuggled cassette tapes. The hope of the new Green revolution may lye in DVDs and CDs as even the poor with no facebook accounts have access to DVD players. Lets burn some DVDs and get the word out. There is security in numbers and this might help bring more people out to support the thousands of brave Iranians already on the street.

I was touched last night as I watched a clip of young demonstrators being charged by the police. As the crowd saw tear gas and smoke rising ahead of them they chanted "be brave, we're all together". With no one to help them and surrounded by so many security forces they are indeed brave as they only have each other.