IRAN, glimmer of hope and lessons unlearned

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the re-election of Mr. Ahmadinejad offers a glimmer of hope for an eventual regime change. Instead of a new president, popular with the elite and the educated, we got the ignorant radical back. Instead of pacification of the masses we have anger and unrest in the big cities. There is no guarantee that this would create a momentum for bigger change but there is no denying that an influential segment of the population is denied its choice of pretend president. The demonstrations that follow can be the ice breaker for a nation frozen in fear for 30 years. Grass root leadership may still emerge from this but its still a long shot.

The reason for the unfavorable odds for change can be found in the election results themselves. If we believe the election results, Mr. Ahmedinejad appears to have support among those living in rural areas, the less educated, the more religious, and the traditional segments of the Iranian society. Of note, these same segments of society were at the core of the Iranian revolution in 1979. Even though the students and merchants are credited with toppling the Shah, the reality is that the poorest in Iran were the ones that made the revolution possible by coming out in their thousands and millions to demonstrate their dissatisfaction with the Shah's regime.

The elite of years ago didn't get it and the elite of today apparently don't either. They can not make a drastic change, or even a small one, without addressing the needs of the poor and the less fortunate in Iran.

As a result of having an entrenched "dictatorship lite" for 30 years is that more than half of the population in Iran works for the government one way or the other. Their biggest fear is that with any kind of change comes a loss of the very little they have. They not only fear for their livelihood but they also fear for their lives, baring in mind the executions that followed the last regime change.

If the elites of Iran want to effect change they need to treat the poor and traditional majority of Iran with some deference and convince them that their lives and livelihood will be protected if the regime does eventually change to a more pro-western regime. Chanting "death to the dictator" in rallies certainly doesn't help allay these fears. In the mind of many, Death to the dictator could easily mean "death to the dictator and his past and present supporters".