Sunday, September 20, 2009

Khamenei's mistake could end his Regime

Khamenei did not need to antagonize all the grand Ayatollahs in Iran and Iraq, for no reason what so ever, but yet he did.

Khamenei issued a decree, on Sat the 19th of september, "ordering" all Iranians to stop fasting and celebrate the Eid on Sunday, rather than Monday, contrary to the decrees of all the other Ayatollahs.

In Shiite Islam individuals are required to select a senior clergyman, an Ayatollah, to be their spiritual guide in religious matters, such as when to start and end the fasting month of Ramadan. Ayatollah Khamenei, like the other Ayatollahs, has his own religious followers, inside and outside the country. He is also the only Ayatollah who is the head of state for all Iranians. This political title does not change the fact that most Iranians, regardless of their political allegiance, look to Ayatollahs other than Khamenei for spiritual guidance when it comes to religious matters.

As a religious leader Khamenei is expected to exercise his purgative in issuing edicts for his own religious followers on issues such as what day to start and end of the fasting month of Ramadan. Such religious edicts are expected to be directed at his religious followers and not be forced on others.

The aforementioned command is a major leap even for a supreme leader and effects all Iranians and not only Khamenei's own religious followers--It is an intolerable mixing of politics and religion even in a theocracy. This blatant action is tantamount to countermanding the religious advice of all other Shiite Ayatollahs in Iran and Iraq, including the grand Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf, who has the greatest religious following among Shiites around the world.

By this action Khamenei is forcing all Shiite Iranians to ignore their own spiritual guides and follow his religious instructions as the political head of state instead. Most people would see this as a step too far and an abuse of power by the supreme leader--needlessly interfering in the most basic of religious matters. The Grand Ayatollahs in Qom and Najaf are likely to see this as a direct challenge to their authority over their flock, and may do the unthinkable and consider the Iranian theocracy a threat to the Shiite religious establishment.

With the exception of the student organizations, the religious establishment in Iran is the only non government entity with grass roots that could be tapped into to organize the opposition movement and give it a reasonable chance of success. If all the Ayatollahs brake their silence and put their weight behind the Green revolution then this regime is history.

Khamenei may believe himself to be the new Khalif or Shah of Iran with power over all people, in both religious and political maters, or he could be simply inadvertently over reaching, either way he may have just made his biggest mistake yet.